今週の市場を一言で表すなら「中国AI、再来」。月之暗面（Moonshot AI）の楊植麟CEOが送り込んだ Kimi K3 が「同性能・半額」という衝撃で登場し、ナスダックは一時2%超下落——TSMCが四半期最高益を叩き出してもなお売り優勢だったのは、「AI巨額投資が正当化できるか」という問いが市場を走ったからだ。同時にマクロではFedのタカ派化が静かに進んでいる。ジェファーソン副議長は「必要なら利上げも」と発言し、7月会合（7/29〜30）前に金利据え置き観測が揺らぐ週となった。その上にイランのクウェート攻撃が石油インフラを直撃し、原油リスクと中東不安を高めたまま週を越えた。三つのリスク——中国AI価格破壊・Fed再タカ派化・中東緊張——が重なる週明けとなる。日本では長年こう着していたリニア中央新幹線の静岡工区にようやく動きが生じ、着工前提となる協定が締結された。
"Fed may need to hike rates if inflation does not ease soon, Jefferson says"
ENFederal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the Fed may need to raise interest rates if inflation fails to ease quickly enough. Separately, Reuters reported that rate-hike voices are swelling ahead of the July 29-30 meeting, though most still expect a hold. The NY Fed's Williams noted energy price retreat as a moderating factor. Bond markets posted a weekly advance on inflation optimism, yet gold saw its biggest weekly drop in six weeks as rate-hike fears resurfaced.
"Treasuries Post Weekly Advance as Inflation Optimism Prevails"
ENUS Treasuries posted their best weekly advance in months as investors grew optimistic about slowing inflation, with the 10-year yield declining. However, money market funds shortened maturities amid Fed uncertainty, and gold fell sharply on rate-hike fears. The bond market is sending mixed signals: Treasuries rally (expecting holds) while gold falls (expecting possible hikes), reflecting genuine uncertainty around the Fed path.
"Dollar firms as US-Iran tensions renew oil price risk"
ENThe dollar strengthened as renewed US-Iran tensions raised concerns about oil supply disruption. Iran's attacks on Kuwait's energy infrastructure — striking an oil facility and a power plant within two days — added to market anxiety. Analysts noted that roughly 20% of the world's oil supply could be at risk if the Strait of Hormuz were threatened, pushing Bitcoin and risk assets lower over the weekend.
"A Chinese Pink Floyd fan is giving Claude and Chat their own DeepSeek moment — an AI model just as good and half the price"
ENMoonshot AI CEO Yang Zhilin released Kimi K3, a reasoning model that benchmarks comparably to OpenAI's and Anthropic's flagship models at roughly half the price — triggering the July 17 Nasdaq selloff. WSJ noted that wider AI availability benefits China while pressuring Western labs' premium pricing. The model forced OpenAI and Anthropic to defend their pricing strategies publicly, echoing the DeepSeek disruption from earlier in 2026.
"Meta in Talks to Lease Computing Power to Anthropic in Potential $10 Billion Deal"
ENMeta is in discussions to lease computing resources to Anthropic in a deal potentially worth $10 billion, the New York Times reported. The arrangement would let Anthropic scale AI training without building its own data centers, while Meta monetizes its massive infrastructure investment. The deal reflects the growing compute-as-a-service trend among AI labs preparing for resource-intensive next-gen model training.
"Anthropic slashes Claude Fable 5 limits in Max and Team Premium and pushes Pro users toward API pricing"
ENAnthropic restructured Claude Fable 5 access: Max plan subscribers get unlimited access permanently, while Pro users are being shifted to a credit-based system aligned with API pricing. The move ends a period of unclear limits, but critics note it is a de facto price hike for heavy Pro users who relied on daily intensive use. The change coincides with Kimi K3's price challenge, making the timing sensitive.
"Google Delays Gemini 3.5 Pro Launch as Coding Performance Doesn't Cut It"
ENGoogle postponed the Gemini 3.5 Pro launch after internal tests showed coding performance below expectations. The Los Angeles Times reported internal tensions between teams and frustrated engineers citing organizational challenges. In parallel, Google rebranded NotebookLM to 'Gemini Notebook' (30 million users affected) and announced the 'Googlebook' — a new Gemini-powered PC lineup — signaling a push to expand the Gemini ecosystem despite model delays.
"OpenAI's smart speaker sounds like a cross between a HomePod and a Furby"
ENOpenAI unveiled a new smart speaker device described by reviewers as a blend of Apple's HomePod and the classic Furby toy. The hardware announcement sent Sonos shares tumbling sharply, as analysts warned the audio giant faces a direct threat. Separately, OpenAI and Oracle are involved in a $43 billion data center project near Ann Arbor, Michigan, with local authorities removing a tax break cap to attract the investment.
"TSMC Just Gave AI Chip Bulls Another Reason to Stay Confident"
ENTSMC reported record-breaking quarterly results driven by surging AI chip demand, with revenue and profit beating consensus estimates. However, investors sold the news — chip stocks fell broadly after the Kimi K3 announcement raised doubts about sustained US AI capex. Gold briefly dipped below $4,000. Semiconductor stocks later saw some dip-buying, but the week closed with AI trade broadly on the defensive.
"SoftBank Plunges 8% as TSMC Outlook Sparks Asian Chip Rout"
ENSoftBank shares plunged 8% as TSMC's forward guidance — despite strong actuals — disappointed investors who expected more bullish commentary on 2026 second-half AI demand. The selloff spread across Asian semiconductor stocks in a broad rout. SoftBank, which made large bets on Nvidia and AI infrastructure, was particularly exposed to the sentiment shift in AI trade.
"Kuwait Energy Infrastructure Hit During Intense Iran Attacks"
ENKuwait suffered one of its worst nights of Iranian retaliatory attacks since the Middle East conflict began, with strikes on an oil facility and a second power plant hit in as many days. Iran's Supreme Leader accused Trump of violating the deal and vowed a forceful response. Fortune reported that Iran has now crossed what Trump defined as his 'red line' for resuming all-out war, with fighting continuing to escalate and no ceasefire in sight.
"Zelenskyy May Fire Commander Syrskyi After Protests, FT Reports"
ENUkrainian President Zelenskyy is reportedly weighing the dismissal of armed forces commander-in-chief Syrskyi following days of turmoil in military leadership and public protests. The NYT separately profiled the rise and fall of Ukraine's drone warfare mastermind, highlighting strategic internal conflicts. Ukraine simultaneously carried out drone strikes on Russian warehouses and oil sites.
"The U.S. saw the first 'China Shock.' Now the world gets the sequel."
ENThe Washington Post analyzes how China's industrial surge is delivering a second 'China Shock' — this time not just hitting the US but disrupting global manufacturing and labor markets. Unlike the early 2000s, China now exports advanced goods including EVs, AI hardware, and industrial robots. Hungary's EV crackdown, China's mineral diplomacy with Indonesia and Kyrgyzstan, and Kimi K3 are all facets of this second wave.